Bart van Ark

A Slight Deepening of the Recessionary Forecast
The past month’s volatility in financial markets and the freezing up of credit willlead to a further deepening of output contraction during the next six to nine months.Based on advance estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of a contractionof 0.3 percent in real GDPduring the third quarter, we forecast a further contractionof 1.9 percent in the final quarter of this year, a minus 1.6 percent growth rate inthe first quarter of 2009, and a minus 1 percent rate in the second quarter. We maysee the economy return to positive growth territory by the second half of next year. ... more

Also:
Update on the U.S. and Global Economies - November 27, 2008
Update on the U.S. and Global Economies - October 8, 2008
Struggling to Find The Bottom in the U.S. Economy
Defining a Sustainable Global Growth Model

View - Bart van Ark on BBC-TV discussing consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season (October 30, 2008).