Economic Business Meeting

Economics

Under the direction of chief economist Bart van Ark, the Economics Department produces in-depth, objective and global research, analysis, forecasts, and indicators.

From the Chief Economist

Bart van Ark

A Deeper U.S. Recession Than Anticipated
For the second time this month, we have had to deepen our recession forecast significantly. Our current recession forecast of more than 4 percent (annualized) for both the current quarter and the first quarter of 2009 is based on several factors. The housing market still shows few signs of bottoming out. Even though mortgage rates appear on a downward trend, conditions are still tight, and this is true of most other lending instruments. Consumer expenditure is also not showing any signs of recovery. Business has hugely contracted in terms of investment at more than 14 percent. And employment is declining at dramatic rates, dropping 533,000 workers in November for a total loss of more than 1.5 million jobs since the turnaround last December. ... more

Latest Forecast

The Economic Week

The labor reports over the past few months have sent clear signals that the recession has been intensifying. The news in November and December (on activity in the labor, housing or financial markets) has been uniformly bleak. The only positive new...more

Economic Indicators

Economic Resources

U.S. Indicators	International
Consumer Confidence Index™ 6.7 pts U.S. Leading Index 0.4% Help-Wanted Online 70,200 Employment Trends Index 1.6% CEO Confidence 1.0 pts	Australia 0.5% France 1.9% Germany 2.6% Japan 2.5% Korea 2.9% Mexico 5.7% Spain 1.2% U.K. 1.7% U.S. 0.4%
Monthly calendar

Total Economy Database
Annual GDP, population, employment, hours and productivity for 125 countries.

Business Cycle Indicators
The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal changes in the business cycle.

Research Reports

Growing Beyond Oil: Productivity, Performance, and Progress in the Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council
This report is part of a major research program on productivity, performance and progress in the Gulf Cooperation Council region which The Conference Board is running in conjunction with Gulf Investment Corporation (GIC).

Performance 2008: Productivity, Employment, and Growth in the World's Economies
This report is the first comprehensive overview of new data on productivity, growth, and employment trends through 2007 based on The Conference Board's and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre's Total Economy Database.

More Economic Research